Rockne's Roundtable

The Irish will be a much, much better football team this year than last. There are several reasons for this.

1.) We will have quarterback who is better prepared to lead. Even if it's Rees, he will be better than last year, just as Clausen and Quinn were better as juniors than sophomores. It's a simple growing process, and virtually every QB improves. It doesn't matter whether his arm is stronger or his feet are faster. He will decide more quickly, and he'll be much better for it.

2.) Michael Floyd did not really do that much for us last year. He was great in some games, but could do nothing when the better defenses doubled his with a safety. Without him, no one knows where the ball will go. This will keep defenses more honest. Between Daniels, Goodman, T. J., Roma, Eifert or one of the other tight ends, one or two of Neal, Russell, Ferguson and Chris Brown, and Riddick, Wood and Atkinson coming out of the backfield, there's an amazing wealth of weapons among which to distribute the ball.

3.) The offense will have Chuck Martin at the helm. Obviously, Kelly and the departed OC did not see eye to eye. Having this pair in charge can only help.

4.) The defense will be very good up front. We need some guys to grow up in a hurry as DB's. This is my only major area of concern. I think some kids will step up, but we'll need to good offense to counter some of the big plays the DB's might surrender, especially early in the year.

5.) The reason the third year is often a harbinger of a coach's long term success is because it's the year the program becomes truly his. By now, most of the divisive influences -- those who find the new regime less palatable than the old -- on the team are gone. Those who remain have either bought in or have very marginal roles. Because of this, the staff finally has a group of kids who will run through walls for them. They don't have to like them. The yelling means nothing. If you think yelling is new at Notre Dame, you've never been around any of the great coaching staffs through the years.

So, what does all this mean? I haven't got a clue when it comes to wins and losses. As we saw last year, anything can happen during a football game. Typically, however, after a year of give away, a team values the ball pretty highly. If we keep turnovers to even money, we shouldn't lose more than three games.

I still think we're a year or two away from being able to dominate all but a couple of games, and have an equal 50% shot against OK and USC. I think we're a year or two away from being able to run a 12 game gauntlet like we have this year without a strong chance of losing a game or two in PREDICTABLE flat spots.

Still, there are only two teams that will out talent us on the field this year, and neither is unbeatable. I expect dog fights in Norman and USC, because I think Brian Kelly's team this year will begin to show Brian Kelly's character. We'll beat Michigan and USC, but will probably lose in Norman and to either Michigan State or BYU.

Mr. Rice, excellent post, again. I have to say that I do not necessarily agree with everything you said (I do agree with most of it, though); however, I thoroughly appreciate you detailing your logic, which is hard to dispute.

A couple of points really caught my eye.

2) You will not hear many ND fans express this sentiment. Those who do risk being labeled over zealous or blindly optimistic. However, I get your reasoning. After following recruiting and reading the same rhetoric (i.e. # of returning starters, key personnel losses, etc.) for so long, I've come to the conclusion that you cannot project a team based on the new pieces it added less the individuals it lost. The value of a team is not necessarily equal to the sum of its parts. I will not be so bold to predict that our passing game will flourish due to the absence of Floyd; however, I will surely not dismiss this notion either. I think, by watching the BBall team over the past few seasons, sometimes when players are so good a team can become reliant on these superstars. When the "other" guys are forced to step up, sometimes you get surprisingly positive results. I'm certainly less optimistic than you, but I definitely wouldn't rule it out.

4) This is probably the one area, in which I am more optimistic than you. Shockingly, I'm really not that worried about our secondary. I think we play a very conservative brand of football, rarely exposing our CBs. You'll notice we were rarely beaten deep last year. While, we did have some good talent and great experience we were hardly world-beaters. Regardless, we didn't finish all too favorably in the final defensive pass efficiency ratings (even adj for our opp). However, to my untrained eye, this was a mixture of sacrificing the "underneath stuff" and average to below average pass covering LBs. I think we improve in this category this year, largely due to improved pass coverage from our more experienced LB unit.

5) I think this is a very important concept that is oft overlooked. I will confess I typically don't put much stock into intangibles (I'm a numbers guy - I loves me some stats); however, even I can admit that the "tone at the top" is vital in any organized structure. I've been in a situation where I lost all respect for my "leader" and our job became a trainwreck. I know BK emphasizes chemistry and consistency. There was obviously some turnover; however, the message should be constant. We can only hope this will yield results.

While I'm less than certain on the number of wins in 2012, I am very optimistic about the direction of our program. I by no means think this is a "make or break" season for BK; rather, I think this is a huge opportunity for this ND team (and BK) to make serious waves. I think most everybody is less than optimistic about our outlook (including an unusually high amount of ND fans). Just based on my observations from various postings and conversations from numerous fans, this year is expected to be a bit of a grind. This allows him the unusual circumstance to overachieve (a rare position amongst ND fans). Weirdly, this is the most excited I've been for a ND season in a long time (maybe ever).

Go Irish!

Until i finally see it done on the field i will go with 7-5 or 8-4. I think they will be better but i have to see it on the field for a change.