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2012 Season Prediction

  • Navy- Win
    Purdue- Win
    Michigan State- Loss
    Michigan- Win
    Miami- Win
    Stanford-Win
    BYU-WIn
    Oklahoma-Loss
    Pitt-Win
    BC-Win
    Wake-Win
    USC-Loss

    The days of being upset by Navy are over. Kelly will have these guys the most focused and ready to play for this one that any other game in the season. I think and this will be a double digit blowout regardless who the QB is.

    Purdue is going to be a lot tougher than people think returning 19 starters from last year and coming out of spring healthy for the first time in awhile. It will be close but it's a win.

    Michigan is a toss up. The last three years have come down to below the final minute and i think this year ND finally puts it away. The teams are pretty evenly matched, and Michigan should be vastly improved on defense, but ND should be starting to click on offense at this point. Home Field gives ND the edge in this one IMO.

    Michigan State could turn out to be a win but these guys seem to alternate wins like clockwork lately. ND won last year so recent history shows they lose this year. Cousins is gone and WR is questionable but the defense is a top 5 unit and might be too much for a sill learning QB and shaky receiving corps. If it's another Little Giants year I wouldn't be surprised. This is a toss up with trends in MSU's favor

    Miami is a win hands down. They have more questions looming than almost any team in the country with sanctions possibly coming and the talent level is not what The U is used to seeing. Should be a relatively easy win.

    Stanford lost Luck but is still returning a lot of talent. I think they come more prepared to play and give a little extra effort that will pay off late in the game. This could be another toss up but I think we win a close one.

    BYU makes me the most nervous of anyone on the schedule this year. They will be a 10 win team or better and ND better come to play in this one because you can bet BYU is. Any slight overlook will spell another loss. With Oklahoma the next week there is a real possibility they might overlook them. This game will be a hell of a ride and I have to give it to ND due to it's at home and I'll be there cheering for my Irish. That's the best I got and that's why they scare me.

    Oklahoma doesn't tend to lose in Norman and i don't think we will be clicking enough to go in there and steal a win. Landry Jones will be a Heisman contender and the defense will be sick this year. the WRs who are off scholarship will probably be reinstated by the time the season rolls around so that will offer no help. Oklahoma is still too far ahead of us talent wise for us to have a shot in this one in Norman. Barring perfect play and a lot of luck this is a loss

    Pitt, BC, and Wake will all be wins but probably not blowouts. BC might be because they lost the most important player on the team and I don't think they have anyone who can fill those shoes. Pitt will be another close win and Wake will be another tough fought victory. but talent and coaching should see us through this stretch unbeaten.

    USC. This one is a tough one because they are loaded on offense and solid on defense but depth might be a killer this late in the season. If something happens to Barkley I don't know who would step in and I doubt anyone could step up in a comparable fashion. The O-Line is another area of concern for USC. They could stand to lose a couple of the WRs and still be deadly. If all the pieces fall right this one could be an upset. But for all the things that need to go right for ND to get a win in this one it's really unlikely so my lean is towards USC. but of the supposed guaranteed losses, we have the best shot to get a win in this one.

    So I'm predicting a 9-3 season with the possibility of anywhere from 11-1 ( miracle ) to 6-6 ( beginning of the end ) One thing is certain though, with Swarbrick navigating the conference realignment minefield the past couple years and more than doubling the chances of a BCS bowl or better for the Irish, Kelly needs to hold up his end of the deal and deliver. We need Kelly to win more than we know and if he doesn't it's only going to get worse. Anyone have anything to add or another prediction on the season for better or worse?

    This post was edited by 19BlueAndGold85 22 months ago

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    5 Time POTW--Gringo Mafia Director of Guerrilla Warfare

  • 11-1 regular season
    12-1 after bowl.
    VK

  • Oh my

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    5 Time POTW--Gringo Mafia Director of Guerrilla Warfare

  • Navy- Win
    Purdue- Win
    Michigan State- Win
    Michigan- Win
    Miami- Win
    Stanford-Win
    BYU-WIn
    Oklahoma-Loss
    Pitt-Win
    BC-Win
    Wake-Win
    USC-Loss

    Kelly and ND shock the world and start 7-0 but can't handle a tough experienced OU on the road. ND comes back strong with 3 straight wins before falling again to a more experienced and athletic club.

    If we can get by UM, I really think this happens. ND's defense will be stout against MSU since they will not have much of a passing threat. Stanford is the wild card since we will find out this year just how good Luck was or was not (I think he carried them and they drop back to a 7-4 team but could be wrong).

  • Other than the fact that when I see one of your posts I take forever to get past the tractor girl, some thoughts:

    I agree with the overall analysis. In your top list you indicate a loss to MSU, OU and USC but in your dialog you also show Stanford as a loss. Either way, I think 8-4, 9-3 or 10-2 would be great if the losses are close for the right reasons and against great teams (we played great but the other team was great and played great themselves). Playing poorly/uninspired against anyone isn't cool, and those losses hurt. I'd like to see the end of that!

    Anyway, enough of this peripheral stuff, back to the tractor . . .

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    “This is that time when you say winning’s a choice.“ Brian Kelly POTW 12/23-12/29, 2013

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    5 Time POTW--Gringo Mafia Director of Guerrilla Warfare

  • Her name is Hillary. Ain't she something?

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    5 Time POTW--Gringo Mafia Director of Guerrilla Warfare

  • 9-3 but I will break it down a little more after the NBA draft

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  • I think taylor mangum of byu is really good as he was a standout from elite 11 however that said I still see nd winning a close game. I think we lose one stupid game but win either USC or ou so it ends up evening out

  • As long as they beat Michigan this year, I don't care if they go 1-11. And if they go 11-1 and lose to Michigan I will still be pissed. That's a must win in my book.

  • I just can't understand this mentality. I maintain that ND needs patience more than anything else. The thought of even contemplating a change after three straight years of 8 wins is baffling to me. This is a feat we haven't accomplished in nearly two decades. We are not a quick-turnaround school like a Bama. We don't have access to all of the same avenues (JUCO, over signing, loose academic standards, etc.), by our own choice.

    I don't want to make excuses. I expect ND to be at a BCS level, consistently, as early as 2013. I just hope ND fans adjust their expectations in the short-term. Personally, I expect 8 regular season wins. Anything more would be a pleasant surprise.

    I've attached my detailed analysis, which I wrote last month.

    POTW 6.4.2012 - 6.10.2012 & 3.4.2013 - 3.10.2013

  • LOL! I knew it, fess up you are Mark May!

  • It seems we agree on a lot of the same stuff. That's a good article and it was a pleasure to read. As far as patience, I would be ok with an 8 win season. It would show consistency and improvement. I didn't say there are no 8 win seasons but a lot of people don't share my viewpoint

    This post was edited by 19BlueAndGold85 22 months ago

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    5 Time POTW--Gringo Mafia Director of Guerrilla Warfare

  • Must Wins
    Navy
    Purdue
    Pitt
    BC
    Wake

    Toss Ups
    MSU
    Stanford
    BYU
    Miami

    Hard Games
    Michigan
    USC
    Oklahoma

    We need to go 5-0 in the must win games. I think we will go 2-2 in the toss ups. I think we are a better team than Miami and we win that and then one of the Stanford/BYU games since they are both at home, let’s say BYU. Then we need to “steal” one against the big boys in the Preseason Top 10, preferably Michigan since it’s at home and we’ve had so many stomach punch losses to them recently. That puts us at 8-4 in the regular season.

    The biggest things I look for this season is to consistently win the games in which we have clearly superior talent. No more losses to South Florida, Tulsa, Navy, 2-8 Syracuse. Those first 5 games I listed above must be won and won in relatively easy fashion. The second thing is to take care of business at home. We have six games at home; I have us at 5-1. I would love to be proven wrong and see 6-0, but we can’t be going 4-2 and certainly not 3-3. We might as well play’em all in Ireland if we can’t make teams fear coming in to Notre Dame Stadium. If we do those two things, beat up on the lesser teams and take care of business at home, then I think we will be on the right track.

  • We were an 8 win team last year that could have been a 10 win team very easily. To expect that we have corrected the issues that kept us from being a 10 win team last year is not baffling... it would be baffling if we have not corrected those issues.

    I think that 10 wins is absolutely within reach, but I would be very upset if we don't win at least 9. If we lose to teams that we are obviously better than again this year, I will be very, very upset.

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    Member of the Gringo Mafia - chief infiltrator of the federales --- If life hands you lemons, throw them at an UofM fan

  • I'd flip MSU and Michigan in your categories. MSU is a better team than Michigan and that game is on the road.

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  • Ah I see. I worry that as a fanbase, sometimes we can't get out of our own way. Seems like you might share that sentiment.

    POTW 6.4.2012 - 6.10.2012 & 3.4.2013 - 3.10.2013

  • I think no one should even question Kelly till after 5 years unless there is a mojor dropoff like going 3-9 in year four or something drastic like that. If after year 5 they are still and 8 win team then there might be a problem that needs addressed. At that point if after 5 seasons with Kelly running the show and not getting above 8 wins a season we would be in bigger trouble than having to find a new HC. So I am behind Kelly 110% for him to succeed

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    5 Time POTW--Gringo Mafia Director of Guerrilla Warfare

  • I agree that we could've won 10 last year and could win 10 in 2012. However, there are way too many variables involved to say that only winning 8 again in 2012 would indicate that we haven't fixed any of our issues.

    Many identify QB as THE issue (myself included). Well, one popular solution to this is to play someone different. Well, the problem is that entails playing someone less experienced; however, it is unreasonable to expect someone with no or little experience at the most important position on the field to navigate what could be the most difficult schedule in the country without some missteps.

    Don't get me wrong. I would be upset if I didn't think we were improving, overall, and specifically in certain areas (i.e. QB). However, I understand that improvement is not linear. It is possible that we are improving, without having the results to show it.

    On the whole, I agree with you; however, I take exception when people speak/think in such absolutes. Anything is possible. We don't know what kind of luck we'll have this year (i.e. injuries, etc.). So, I wouldn't rule out a 12-0 season, just like I wouldn't rule out 6-6.

    I expect 8 wins, all things being equal; however, there are too many variables to start clamoring for change based soley on this factor.

    POTW 6.4.2012 - 6.10.2012 & 3.4.2013 - 3.10.2013

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    6-Time POTW Winner, 4 time at BGI and 2 at 24/7

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    My luck w/the Irish 20-6...GO IRISH!!!

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    5 Time POTW--Gringo Mafia Director of Guerrilla Warfare

  • The Irish will be a much, much better football team this year than last. There are several reasons for this.

    1.) We will have quarterback who is better prepared to lead. Even if it's Rees, he will be better than last year, just as Clausen and Quinn were better as juniors than sophomores. It's a simple growing process, and virtually every QB improves. It doesn't matter whether his arm is stronger or his feet are faster. He will decide more quickly, and he'll be much better for it.

    2.) Michael Floyd did not really do that much for us last year. He was great in some games, but could do nothing when the better defenses doubled his with a safety. Without him, no one knows where the ball will go. This will keep defenses more honest. Between Daniels, Goodman, T. J., Roma, Eifert or one of the other tight ends, one or two of Neal, Russell, Ferguson and Chris Brown, and Riddick, Wood and Atkinson coming out of the backfield, there's an amazing wealth of weapons among which to distribute the ball.

    3.) The offense will have Chuck Martin at the helm. Obviously, Kelly and the departed OC did not see eye to eye. Having this pair in charge can only help.

    4.) The defense will be very good up front. We need some guys to grow up in a hurry as DB's. This is my only major area of concern. I think some kids will step up, but we'll need to good offense to counter some of the big plays the DB's might surrender, especially early in the year.

    5.) The reason the third year is often a harbinger of a coach's long term success is because it's the year the program becomes truly his. By now, most of the divisive influences -- those who find the new regime less palatable than the old -- on the team are gone. Those who remain have either bought in or have very marginal roles. Because of this, the staff finally has a group of kids who will run through walls for them. They don't have to like them. The yelling means nothing. If you think yelling is new at Notre Dame, you've never been around any of the great coaching staffs through the years.

    So, what does all this mean? I haven't got a clue when it comes to wins and losses. As we saw last year, anything can happen during a football game. Typically, however, after a year of give away, a team values the ball pretty highly. If we keep turnovers to even money, we shouldn't lose more than three games.

    I still think we're a year or two away from being able to dominate all but a couple of games, and have an equal 50% shot against OK and USC. I think we're a year or two away from being able to run a 12 game gauntlet like we have this year without a strong chance of losing a game or two in PREDICTABLE flat spots.

    Still, there are only two teams that will out talent us on the field this year, and neither is unbeatable. I expect dog fights in Norman and USC, because I think Brian Kelly's team this year will begin to show Brian Kelly's character. We'll beat Michigan and USC, but will probably lose in Norman and to either Michigan State or BYU.