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2013 reg season wins at 9 games. Still too little depth at key position groups (e.g. OL and RB), and the kicking/return game doesn't show any signs of improvement at all. The jury's till out on Golson too, though Kelly insists he's improved. GAIII's inability to contribute to the passing game is a concern.
Still too early to declare this "program reconstruction project" complete, by any stretch of the imagination.
This post was edited by domer1976 12 months ago
Well, if the lads in Vegas use your 9 as the number of regular season wins, then I'm JUMPING on the Over.
Unless it's a minus 120 I could see three 0's in my wager.
This juror is in on Golson. BIG THUMBS UP Just look at Golson in the first part of the season and then Golson
from the Oklahoma game through season's end. The numbers are staggering. I could post them, but if you do
the research yourself, you'll remember them better. (cf. Mehrabian).
It's going to be fun!
We looked like garbage in last years spring game as well, and we went on to win 12 games... Prob not to smart to judge how many game we will win from a game like that... Atleast wait til after the michigan game
I'm over, this is easily a 10-12 win team. Anything less than 10 would be highly disappointing IMO.
agreed. When players like Joe Schmidt are out there getting interceptions im prob not gonna be gauging how good we will be. the frosh didnt even arrive yet. you know vanderdoes and jaylon are gonna help bring this D's depth to a different level.
I will take the over....
No down-vote please - thank you!
No down-vote por favor, gracias !
Gringo Mafia ~
amigo el número cuatro
Notre dame will average 31 to 33 points a game this year and give up around between 12 to 14 points per game. That's my over and under.
10 wins is the floor.
hard to draw any conclusions from such a limited sample size of scrimmage like saturday. i think golson will show improvement this year. if healthy, the OL should be a strength. the D will be a strength.
but we better hope one of the punter joining the team this summer works out because that was a poor exhibition.
Part of picking an over/under on wins is not just what you think about ND but what you think about the other teams. When I look at thier schedule, I see a lot of potentially great teams but no obvious "ND will lose" game. Doesn't mean they will win them all, especially if they don't play consistent. But how long has it been since you could say that? No one expected them to get through such a brutal schedule last year.
One other thing.. am I the only person who thinks this will be a much better team than last year? I am not worried about replacing Te'o, they are going to field a fantastic defense. I am most worried about replacing Theo Riddick, especially after watching GAIII at the Spring game. If Bryant or Folston can come here and pull off with Yeldon did at Bama as a true freshman, I think this is a very dangerous team.
I think ND could be a little bit better this year, though marginally. Even so, I think it could be tough for them to get double digit wins. If we're honest we'd ackowledge there was an element of luck in last year's season that may not be repeated this year. ND was very, very lucky to win the Pitt and Stanford games last year. We should probably have lost to Pitt. There were several other games that could have gone either way, too.
I could see ND winning 10 reg season games in 2013, but I think this year's team would need to be at least as good as last year's team to get there.
domer, even if we accept your luck premise, ND still would have won 10 games last year, and for that matter, they might have won 10 the year before if that same kind of luck hadn't worked against them. So, I think a 10 win season is a fair assessment with the breaks evening out. There are always unknowns, but fewer this year than last, when the biggest unknown was QB. Opposing teams could surprise. That's always an unknown. Again, ND probably had some luck last year in Oklahoma and USC not being all that had been advertised. But, the one thing I wouldn't put much stock in is what you saw Saturday. When you can play touch football to tackle the Everett Golson, you're asking him to play with one hand tied behind his back. And he won't play a defense that good all year long, unless the Irish match up with Alabama again. I'm definitely hoping that Vegas is in agreement with you.
I may not be pretty, but I'm fast.....
POTW 1/31/11 - 2/6/11
I know I'm a bit less optimistic than many here, though my concerns are not primarily based on the viewing of the spring game, but rather on following them the entire spring, and reading what I could into the accounts from the coaches and the guys who cover the team day to day.
In fact, the noticable gaps we all observed in the spring game were about what I expected to see: Atkinson does not look like the answer at RB; the OL had little success running the ball; the safety position is unsettled and the special teams are grossly deficient. The only suprises (to me) were Golson's jitters (an unpleasant surprise) and Zaire's resilience and field presence (a pleasant surprise).
Last year's team overachieved, and in my opinion this year's team will need to do the same to find itself in a bcs game. It's not like all the other programs on our schedule are standing still; they expect improvements in their teams this year, too.
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by domer1976 12 months ago
I am thinking the minimum is 10. You suggest that there is a lack of depth on the OL and at RB. I counter with the fact that I believe if Martin and Hanratty start with the three returners, we are better off with Stanley, Hegarty, and Elmer than we were last year with Martin and Hanratty as the 'next-in' guys. Also, we did lose a lot of carries in Theo and Cierre, but GAIII, Amir, Cam, and the incoming freshmen are arguably better talents. GAIII hasn't contributed in the passing game, but I believe we have enough talent that can line up at the RB/slot position to help in the passing game. While I wasn't the biggest EG supporter, I am all-in his corner in CBK is. I think our QB position is ten-fold above where we were last year.
We aren't back yet as you say, but anything less than double digits is a huge letdown.
Gringo Mafia Director of Recruiting Analysis // POTW --> 5-16-11 / 5-30-11 / 3-5-12 / 12-30-12 / 2-24-13 / 9-1-13 / 9-22-13
I believe Michigan beat ND statistically last year and their fans say up and down they lost the game rather than ND won it. My response to that is simple... check the three previous years. ND should have won every one of those games. Especially under the lights at UM. They all came down to luck and bad hops.
So ND finds itself under the lights in Ann Arbor again this year, where anything can happen. Another bad omen is that Hoke has yet to lose at home heading into his third year as HC.
What's the point? The point is that I think if the UM game comes down to luck... UM will win. ND is going to need to post a convincing victory to show they are for real. Yes, UM will be a lot better (even without Denard), but I think ND will be as well. If they can beat UM convincingly, my bet is that luck will play less of a part to this season as it did last season.
This post was edited by Jpjr 12 months ago
domer, those are fair observations, and it's as easy to think about this team, or most very good teams not named Alabama going 8-4 or 12-0. In fact, much easier to imagine 8-4 for most teams. Think Ohio St. last year, for example. But, to your concerns, Atkinson is not likely to be the answer as your mainstay running back. But, what are the chances he will be the one getting the bulk of the carries throughout the season? So, file that under "we don't know." As to the "OL having little success running the ball" in the spring game, you had a line with three first-time starters against an experienced defensive front that is arguably as tough as any in college ball. Perhaps you can draw some longer term implications on that, but I can't. Special teams remain as big a concern as they've been for the past three years, yet two of those ND played very close to a 10-2 level, on both sides of it, and that was with a very raw quarterback, or a limited one. So, it's kind of a glass full, glass empty situation. We can stipulate the facts, but it will be the interpretation that sets us apart. The only right or wrong answers will happen on the field.
Our front 7 is gonna be nasty this year, sheldon day a year bigger, you know what youre gettin from tuitt and nixx, plus a bigger and healthy kona shwenke, springmann and jjarron jones to give our 1s a breather, ishaq gettin 10 to 20 more reps a game, 5th year senior ILBs, shembo is relentless and i cant wait to see him and ishaq on the field together at the same time. spond/councell/jaylon, and plus vanderdoes... Goodluck gardner... Lets not forget out first 12 games last year...No one runs TDs on us... We lost teo but our dline is the same and we have a wolfman taking his spot
Undefeated. No kool aid here, no luck either, just like last year. You guys know my thoughts by now, I'm just that way
2 time POTW winner on some dates I can't remember from 2yrs ago at BNG,
POTW: 1/3/11- 1/9/11, 6/20/11-6/26/11
Ham, Remember, in addition to Pitt, Stanford, and UM, ND almost lost to Purdue last year too! (as did OSU).
It's so very difficult to go undefeated; even 10-2 is a very high bar. If ND goes 10-2, they will be BCS-bowling.
That being said, they could go 13-0. I just don't think they are that dominant yet. But after the past 27 years, we're still due some luck so who knows.
5 Time POTW--Gringo Mafia Director of Guerrilla Warfare
Unlike the majority of posters on this board who wear rose colored glasses, you are being realistic. Our secondary will cause us fits this season. Our o-line is being rebuilt. Our d-line was pushed around by teams we barely beat. Special teams have been a weakness with no end in sight. Kicking and punting is a ??????????? until the freshmen arrive in the fall.
Golson still has to prove he can throw over the middle against good teams. Right now (remember I said now) Michigan, Stanford and USC are possible losses. Throw in Arizona State as a possible upset and we are at 8-4 with QB questions.
Now domer1976, wait for the negative posts against me for stating my reasonable opinions.
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by 96domer165006 12 months ago
Blue, last year's Alabama team, who has become the gold standard against which all else is measured, in addition to losing to A&M, came precariously close to losing to LSU and Georgia. It wouldn't have taken much for them to be 9-3. But, they weren't. Every team will have close encounters, but those who consistently win the close ones do so for a reason, and it is rarely because they are dominant. That's the X factor that can't be evaluated going into a season. It will be there, or it won't. You don't know it until you get tested under fire.
Another year with Golson at the helm and the blue chip recruits that keep coming in, things are going to be getting very exciting in South Bend. Trips to the new NCAA 4 team tournament is going to become very common.
Ham, appreciate your thoughts and agree to an extent. As far as x factor, ND had it in spades last year. Hoping it continues. I agree it is certainly not all luck. But Pitt and Purdue weren't close to Georgia and LSU last year. I think ND is a top 10, maybe even top 5 team. That doesn't mean I think they can't win it all. Just means in 6 or more out of 10 games head to head, I'd expect around 5-10 teams should beat them.
Of all those potential losses you mentioned, I was surprised you didn't list Oklahoma. There is nothing better for a blue-blood program like them to suddenly be under the radar with a coach like Stoops. In some ways, I think their situation might be similar to what Notre Dame had last year.
Beware the Sooners on Sept. 28.
Blue, I can agree with most of that. I think there are roughly four games that qualify as "too close to call at this time, until we know more about the teams, including ND." With that in mind, the safe play is to say they'll split those, and go 10-2. But, I did not understand your last sentence
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