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Path to BCS!

  • Knowing that the most important caveat to us eeking into the 14th spot in the BCS is to beat BC and Stanford; I thought that I would look at the teams that are currently ranked above us and their remaining schedule.
    Having done that I found that even though there are only 3 weeks left in the regular season there is alot of football left to be played! Plus, a couple conference championships.
    I found the following road blocks for the two and three loss teams ahead of us:

    #25 FSU still has UF
    #24 Auburn still has Bama
    #23 Texas still has KSU, @Texas A&M, @ Baylor
    #22 Baylor still has Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas
    #21 PSU still has @ OSU, @ Wisconsin
    #20 Southern Miss will win out
    #19 TCU will win out
    #18 Michigan still has Nebraska , OSU
    #17 Wisconsin still has PSU
    #16 Nebraska still has @ Michigan, Iowa
    #15 MSU finishes @ Northwestern
    #14 Georgia finishes @ Georgia Tech then the potential SEC title game
    #13 Kansas St. still has @ Texas, Iowa St.
    #12 South Carolina still has Clemson

    Now if we win out we technically wouldn't need for all of these teams to lose because our pending victory over Stanford would afford us the possibility to jump several of these teams.
    I'm not implying that there is a good chance or even and average chance of any of this happening. At best there is a miniscule chance but HEY, WTH, it will make the last three weeks very exciting to watch.

  • Thanks for the rundown! I guess you never know and it is always ok to dream! Big dreams,lol.

    Two time Poster of The Week, 2011 and 2013.

  • Thanks for the work, Willie. Worst case scenario, it's interesting message board fodder.

    But you know what...I've come to grips with ND not going to the BCS this year. I mean, of course I wouldn't turn it down, but the Champs Sports Bowl might be for the best.

    The last thing this program needs is to get slaughtered in a BCS bowl game again. And honestly, I think it's clear that the program isn't BCS-caliber just yet. Let's keep building momentum. If we win out, including a victory over Florida State or Georgia Tech in a bowl game, the program will be trending in the right direction. Recruiting will get another boost and there will be a positive vibe heading into the 2012 season.

    My luck with the Irish: 4-5, 3-time POTW

  • path to the bcs- wait til next year

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    poster of the century status-irishnd966/The Ohiosupergenius has spoken-Norberg/2D6 is always right-floridacarpenter/4/5/04 13,000+

  • NYDomer310 said... (original post)

    Thanks for the work, Willie. Worst case scenario, it's interesting message board fodder.

    But you know what...I've come to grips with ND not going to the BCS this year. I mean, of course I wouldn't turn it down, but the Champs Sports Bowl might be for the best.

    The last thing this program needs is to get slaughtered in a BCS bowl game again. And honestly, I think it's clear that the program isn't BCS-caliber just yet. Let's keep building momentum. If we win out, including a victory over Florida State or Georgia Tech in a bowl game, the program will be trending in the right direction. Recruiting will get another boost and there will be a positive vibe heading into the 2012 season.

    Not to say we are as good as LSU or Bama or OSU, but the feeling we are not BCS ready is a joke. We can't compete with the ACC Champion Clemson Tigers? That's the same team that gave up 45 points to Maryland and needed a last second field goal to steal a win from Wake Forest - you remember them right? The Big Least representative is not exactly a powerhouse and would make for an interesting game if Cincinnatti manages to hold on. The Big Ten Champ - Michigan State, Iowa, Michigan or Wisconsin ? You don't think we could compete against any of those teams?

    Nice job Willie - Posted a similar thread after the Wake game with a list of the teams ahead of us and who they had to play and the general consensus was I was nuts for even thinking about it

    POTW - Last year and 2/20/11

  • We have no chance.

    I'm not exactly excited about our chances in the Champs Bowl if we get a matchup up with FSU either. In all 3 of their losses, they didn't have EJ Manuel, who is basically a 6'4" Dennard Robinson. Their had 5 turnovers in their close loss at Wake and they would have the advantage at just about every position on the field over us. It's just a bad matchup...would much rather play VT, GT or Clemson.

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    My luck w/the Irish 20-6...GO IRISH!!!

  • hcwillie said... (original post)

    Knowing that the most important caveat to us eeking into the 14th spot in the BCS is to beat BC and Stanford; I thought that I would look at the teams that are currently ranked above us and their remaining schedule. Having done that I found that even though there are only 3 weeks left in the regular season there is alot of football left to be played! Plus, a couple conference championships. I found the following road blocks for the two and three loss teams ahead of us:

    #25 FSU still has UF #24 Auburn still has Bama #23 Texas still has KSU, @Texas A&M, @ Baylor #22 Baylor still has Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas #21 PSU still has @ OSU, @ Wisconsin #20 Southern Miss will win out #19 TCU will win out #18 Michigan still has Nebraska , OSU #17 Wisconsin still has PSU #16 Nebraska still has @ Michigan, Iowa #15 MSU finishes @ Northwestern #14 Georgia finishes @ Georgia Tech then the potential SEC title game #13 Kansas St. still has @ Texas, Iowa St. #12 South Carolina still has Clemson

    Now if we win out we technically wouldn't need for all of these teams to lose because our pending victory over Stanford would afford us the possibility to jump several of these teams. I'm not implying that there is a good chance or even and average chance of any of this happening. At best there is a miniscule chance but HEY, WTH, it will make the last three weeks very exciting to watch.

    This is basically the same thing I said in another thread. I think the odds of ND sneaking into the Top 14 are way too great to overcome but I kind of played out the same scenario that you just posted. Here's how I see it....

    #25 FSU isn't going to lose to UF so as ND moves up FSU stays right in front of them
    #24 Auburn is toast, ND leaps them
    #23 Texas will probably lose one of those games if not 2, ND jumps
    #22 Baylor will lose to Oklahoma, ND jump
    #21 PSU is probably going to lose out, ND jump
    #20 Southern Miss will win out but I'm not sure anyone is taking them seriously. If this purpose they'll probably stay ahead of ND
    #19 TCU will win out and stay ahead of ND
    #18 Michigan will lose to either Nebraska or OSU, ND could possibly pass them if they lose to one, will definitely jump them if they lose both
    #17 Wisconsin will win out and stay ahead of ND
    #16 Nebraska will probably win out but either way they'll stay ahead of ND
    #15 MSU will win out and stay ahead of ND.....which absolutely sucks
    #14 Georgia tough call against GaTech because of the rivalry but I'm picking them to win out and stay ahead of ND
    #13 Kansas St could lose to Texas but still probably stay ahead of ND because they'll win the following week. KSU will beat Texas so it doesn't really matter.
    #12 South Carolina vs Clemson is tough but I think the Gamecocks are overrated so I'm going with a Clemson win. ND jumping South Carolina will still be too difficult because of the #12 ranking.

    Taking into consideration that ND has to win out (debatable) I think the absolute best ranking that ND will be looking at is a #16 or #17.

    Simm-with all due respect I think we could match up fairly well with FSU in a bowl game. Manuel might be a 6'4 Denard Robinson but ND contained DR for the most part until the turnovers finally killed them. If FSU is going to beat ND we all know that it will be because of Manuel. I don't think they have anyone else that could put the team on his shoulders. Contain EJ and you halt FSU. ND on the otherhand has a few players that could carry the team at various times throughout the game: Floyd, Eifert, Wood and Gray. I also like that there's a solid month for the defense to heal up. I would look forward to a matchup against FSU.

  • I completely agree that we can beat any Big East or ACC team! Go Irish!

  • simm said... (original post)

    We have no chance.

    I'm not exactly excited about our chances in the Champs Bowl if we get a matchup up with FSU either. In all 3 of their losses, they didn't have EJ Manuel, who is basically a 6'4" Dennard Robinson. Their had 5 turnovers in their close loss at Wake and they would have the advantage at just about every position on the field over us. It's just a bad matchup...would much rather play VT, GT or Clemson.

    Manuel is a much better passer than Robinson....but Manuel is nowhere near the runner. I don't see the similarity between those 2 QB's.

    3 time POTW

  • hcwillie said... (original post)

    Knowing that the most important caveat to us eeking into the 14th spot in the BCS is to beat BC and Stanford; I thought that I would look at the teams that are currently ranked above us and their remaining schedule. Having done that I found that even though there are only 3 weeks left in the regular season there is alot of football left to be played! Plus, a couple conference championships. I found the following road blocks for the two and three loss teams ahead of us:

    #25 FSU still has UF #24 Auburn still has Bama #23 Texas still has KSU, @Texas A&M, @ Baylor #22 Baylor still has Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas #21 PSU still has @ OSU, @ Wisconsin #20 Southern Miss will win out #19 TCU will win out #18 Michigan still has Nebraska , OSU #17 Wisconsin still has PSU #16 Nebraska still has @ Michigan, Iowa #15 MSU finishes @ Northwestern #14 Georgia finishes @ Georgia Tech then the potential SEC title game #13 Kansas St. still has @ Texas, Iowa St. #12 South Carolina still has Clemson

    Now if we win out we technically wouldn't need for all of these teams to lose because our pending victory over Stanford would afford us the possibility to jump several of these teams. I'm not implying that there is a good chance or even and average chance of any of this happening. At best there is a miniscule chance but HEY, WTH, it will make the last three weeks very exciting to watch.

    Like you said, willie.....we have to beat Stanford at Stanford in Luck's last home game. I really don't see that happening. Without that domino falling, the rest isn't going to matter!

    3 time POTW

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  • A couple of weeks ago I predicted a no.16 finish by ND if they won. After looking over GIGA's post that still looks about right. HCWillie is right, it is definitely possible. Of course the hard part will be beating Stanford. But if we do, then there is no question that we can compete in a BCS game. The question would then be if we would bet an invite, not whether we could compete.

    POTW 2/7-13/2011