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Looking at all of the aspects of the new college football postseason format that we know about so far that will begin in the 2014 season, you have to be excited as an Irish fan and here's why:
-ND's chances at getting a shot at the national title just doubled from the current 1vs2 BCS format, we now can play for it by finishing #1-4.
-ND gets to keep it's football independence because it's hand was not forced to join a conference since it is not required that you win a conference title to be eligible, thus ND remains a national profile school that will control it's own schedule, revenue streams, and media markets.
-ND gains greater access to one of the BIG bowls as there will now be 6 and not 4 BCS type post season bowl games. 2 will be used as the Final Four, and the 4 other games will pit the 8 next best teams against each other. So the BCS pool of teams just increased from 8 to 12.
-Our access to mid tier bowl games will increase as well since the AQ status is going away, so will some of the current conference tie ins to bowl games. It's up to Swarbrick to lock ND in to some of these games.
My luck w/the Irish 20-6...GO IRISH!!!
I agree Simm, and i really hope we are given better access to the second tier bowls so we have more options than in the past. If we are good enough we will be able to make a top bowl or the playoff. But we need better access to the other bowls and i think our AD will have a plan in place.
Two time Poster of The Week, 2011 and 2013.
Good post. In regards to controlling our own schedule, it's time to make it a more manageable one.
5 Time POTW--Gringo Mafia Director of Guerrilla Warfare
Swarbrick moved his mountain, now it's time for Kelly to do the same.
You ain't lying my friend. Kelly needs to put the women and children to bed and go hunting for dinner
Exactly. Actually winning games can go further for you then playing the best school or one of the best schools in each region/conference/country/Pro stadiums.
No one knows what the formula is yet. We still don't know the weighting of a conference champion or strength of schedule or how they are calculating the SOS. We also don't know how the other conferences are going to react, or do. Notre Dame has not won anything yet.
poster of the century status-irishnd966/The Ohiosupergenius has spoken-Norberg/2D6 is always right-floridacarpenter/4/5/04 13,000+
I thought the selection was by committee. If so, then I don't know why it matters what any formula says. Even if the committee is supposed to "rely" on a formula, similar to RPI in basketball, I don't think it truly matters how much emphasis is placed on each of those criteria.
If they wanted to go strictly by a formula, there would be no need for a committee. The inclusion of a committee implies that there will be some subjectivity involved. So, I think the "emphasis" on conference champs is more of a facade. This year is a perfect example: there is no way a committee keeps Bama out of a playoff despite not winning their conference. I could, however, see how a committee would've selected Oregon over Stanford, because Oregon was the conference champ and won head-to-head. I have no basis, but I presume that is how the "conf champ" criteria will be used.
I just cannot envision a scenario where there is a team, which is clearly one of the 4 best, being left out by any unbiased committee.
POTW 6.4.2012 - 6.10.2012 & 3.4.2013 - 3.10.2013
Let's say you have 6 teams that went 11-1, including Notre Dame. All big schools like Alabama, LSU, Oregon, Michigan, and USC. Notre Dame loses to Michigan and beats MSU, but UM loses to MSU. ND beats USC who beats Oregon. and so on... Now, how would you come up with the SOS? How would even Sagarin factor in for a first game in Ireland followed up by a decent Purdue team with 18 starters, both teams ND beat in dog fights, followed by MSU and UM? How would you rate the difficulty of those games versus an LSU run of Alabama, Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Arkansas at the end of the season when who knows what kinds of down emotional states those teams might be in based on earlier season fortunes or injuries? It's not easy. Toss up? OK, then now LSU wins the SEC against Alabama, but lost to Bama during the season. SEC conference champion is going to get that spot. Bama lost only 1 game to LSU. They'll get one too. Michigan beat ND head to head and won the Big 10. They'll get one. USC wins the PAC 12 and gives Oregon their only loss, and USC blows everyone else away, but loses to ND in OT? PAC 12 Champion gets one too?
ND being an independent is going to hurt ND more times than not in all liklihood because we don't know the weighting that will be placed on the conference champions --- and the conferences rule. The Rose Bowl is going to want their boys in the game. So will the Sugar etc.
I don't think my first post was very clear. The point I was trying to make (though I got admittedly side-tracked) was that there is no way to guess how anyone will make any decisions, much less one as complicated as the scenario illustrated above.
Any time human nature (and therefore, subjectivity) is involved all cards go out the window. In your scenario I could see someone justifying that Alabama should not qualify since they lost their conference championship. By the same token Oregon is eliminated. Leaving LSU, USC, Michigan, and ND. The same amount of conference champions as you suggested.
In this turn of events, being in a conference hurt Bama and Oregon. A legitimate argument can be made for either of our scenarios. Frankly, this will inevitably happen at some point during the 12 year effective period. Some teams will feel jilted to have been excluded.
I don't think this system was designed so that no one gets upset with the outcome. That result would be impossible. I think the purpose was to derive a more accurate and effective way to determine the champion. I think this took a big step in that direction.
Now, back to the heart of your concern: the "decision-making" formula. I actually would like to see them implement a transparent formula (i.e. RPI) that provides a reference for the decision-makers. That said, these decision makers would ultimately be responsible; so, they would have the final call. There is no guarantee that they would put much if any value into such formula. The perfect example is RPI. It is hardly the end-all be-all for the NCAA tourney.
IC, props btw for coming up with such a complex yet entirely possIble scenario. +1 my friend.
Not to go off topic, but I am really intrigued by the idea of an objective rating system. If I were designing such a system I would make sure the include SOS and margin of victory (with a cap).
It would be extremely hard to quantify intangible aspects of a schedule (i.e. playing in Ireland, the order of the schedule, etc.). So, I don't think you can include those considerations. I would prefer this to attempting to assign some sort of value to these criteria because then you are adding a level of subjectivity.
The conference championship games are going to eliminate some teams from the Final Four. They have set it up to function like the NCAA basketball tourney with a selection committee. You won't know what the exact process is as they will be picked by a group of men in a hotel. You won't know exactly why they picked who they did. The BCS did that and people hated it, so this is what you get. But, rest assured, just like in basketball you're going to have people crying because they didn't get selected no matter if you have 4 teams, 8 teams, 16 teams, 32 teams. The complaining will never stop and you are always going to have clamoring for more. The NCAA tourney is exploring going to 96 teams now for crying out loud.
Simm, I agree with what you've said, in both posts. There are still uncertainties just as there are now, but Notre Dame's chances have likely been enhanced by these changes. I like ND's hand as long as Swarbrick's on board. I think he's too strong a figure to have ND get steamrolled. Don't discount the role of personalities in matters such as this, because horse trading will always go on. I think it might be time for ND to restructure Jack's contract.
I may not be pretty, but I'm fast.....
POTW 1/31/11 - 2/6/11
ND will always make it into the final 4 if it can be justified. A 12-0 or 11-1 Irish team would would have no problems getting in most of the time. Another thing they would have in their favor is $$$$. Us fans travel well and spend big money when we do.
What about the Big 12? Every post left them out.
What about it? That was never going to happen, IMO. Just message board rumors.
Agreed. The only question is how long Swarbrick wants to be here as AD and how long before a conference comes calling him to be their commissioner like they did with Gene Corrigan, or the NCAA calls him to run the whole ship. Thank God Kevin White left long ago.
These were just hypothetical situations. I don't think anyone is actually discounting the Big XII.
I think you could muddy the waters even further if you add an 11-1 Oklahoma State (Big XII Champ) and 12-1 FSU (ACC champ). Then you have 8 teams (5 big conf champs) that all have only one loss. Undoubtedly, the committee would need some sort of rating system to attempt to choose four from this group. [IC, I'm now seeing that this is what you were trying to illustrate in your example, above.]
Simm I was referring to Big 12 champions. The previous posts were leaving them out. Nothing to do with ND and joining the big 12
That is where I was going. I would not count out the Big 12 and ACC. I say make the playoff include all big conference champions plus wild cards.
It's not going to happen. The selection committee will have their own rankings that will be released for the first time around the middle of the season. Swarbrick said he would not be surprised if they don't look anything the polls. You can look at college football history over the past 50 years and count on one hand how many years 8 major college football teams finished with 1 loss or less.
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