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Only slightly OT - "Moneyball" philosophy and turnovers

  • This is an article about turnovers in the NFL, but I think, for the most part, it's applicable to college ball, as well. It includes a statistical analysis of the impact of turnovers. The important part of the article, for me, was that nearly all turnovers are random, particularly defensive, but that the one which can be controlled is interceptions. The article makes the point that there needn't be any consistency of turnover productivity from year to year (other than related to the quarterback). While obviously, some players, or even teams, may be more opportunistic, it doesn't always bear out statistically. For example, Harrison Smith was a turnover machine, last year. This year, not so much. However, Tommy Rees was prone to throwing picks last year, and sadly, that did not change this year. This is very telling for ND's past season -- the two biggest problems, and they were interrelated, were quarterback play and turnovers. Going into next year, there is a high probability of quarterback change, and at least a statistical likelihood that other turnovers will not have such a negative impact. All of which is to say, things might actually get better next year, hard as that is for many to accept.

    This post was edited by HamOnWry22 on 1/19/2012 at 7:25 PM

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    The turnover battle: crucial, yet unpredictable - Stats Driven - Boston sports statistics blog

    Turnovers: cant live without (forcing) them.

    www.boston.com
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    I may not be pretty, but I'm fast..... POTW 1/31/11 - 2/6/11

    HamOnWry22

  • Sorry about the multiple links above, but it's only the bottom one from Boston.com that matters.

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    I may not be pretty, but I'm fast..... POTW 1/31/11 - 2/6/11

    HamOnWry22

  • Also, if you look at the article, you'll see the author is a sophomore at Harvard, which means you can either dismiss this as a work of an amateur, or think about the Jonah Hill character in "Moneyball" who was a kid just out of Yale.

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    I may not be pretty, but I'm fast..... POTW 1/31/11 - 2/6/11

    HamOnWry22

  • From the Pig's snout to God's ears. Good enough for me. :)

    Of course, this also would lead one to believe that there's no chance for Rees to improve. I'm not that glass-half-empty, but it's hard to argue with the connection. If Rees, however unlikely, remains the starter, the team around him is going to have to become infinitely better in order to keep those INTs from catching up. Here's to hoping for the best all around.

    Gringo Mafia: The Girl. Director of Musical Activities and Group Hugs. POTW May 3-9 & Nov. 22-28, 2010

    Kinsiah0220

  • Kinsiah0220 said...

    From the Pig's snout to God's ears. Good enough for me. :)

    Of course, this also would lead one to believe that there's no chance for Rees to improve. I'm not that glass-half-empty, but it's hard to argue with the connection. If Rees, however unlikely, remains the starter, the team around him is going to have to become infinitely better in order to keep those INTs from catching up. Here's to hoping for the best all around.

    Kinsiah, I implied that Rees' INT rate would likely stay the same because that's probably the prevailing belief around here, and I didn't want to open that can of worms. However, other statistics would likely show a significant chance of QB improvement between sophomore and junior year, and that should logically include INT's. As a practical matter, I think there's an even better chance that someone other than Tommy Rees will be starting at quarterback so one way or the other, I have to think the interception rate will improve.

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    I may not be pretty, but I'm fast..... POTW 1/31/11 - 2/6/11

    HamOnWry22

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    Irish legend CMC Quote Master and Director of Football Related Discussions 5 Time POTW & 2 Time WPOTW Winner Joined 09/17/05

    Hodges

  • HamOnWry22 said...

    Kinsiah, I implied that Rees' INT rate would likely stay the same because that's probably the prevailing belief around here, and I didn't want to open that can of worms. However, other statistics would likely show a significant chance of QB improvement between sophomore and junior year, and that should logically include INT's. As a practical matter, I think there's an even better chance that someone other than Tommy Rees will be starting at quarterback so one way or the other, I have to think the interception rate will improve.

    Have to agree with you on all points here. It seems like once you show a penchant for throwing interceptions, you're doomed to that fate... If confidence has anything to do with it, it's also easy to see how someone like Tom Brady would continue being successful.

    When talking the college game, I'm sure as you said, you also have to account for the possibility of improvement as skills are developed. The NFL is probably a more consistent playing field so to speak, as those guys have typically reached their peak of development. Fortunately for Notre Dame, we probably see a change at that position, especially now that we have young men who have had time to absorb the mental aspect of the college game. As the QB position becomes more what it is intended to be in this system, we are also less likely to be throwing for our lives, so to speak. Even though Brian Kelly's offense is supposed to be fast-paced and exciting, I don't believe it has to be as high-risk as we've seen recently, if it is multi-dimensional. All signs point to the likelihood of improvement.

    Of course, it's also hard to argue with Hodges. Maybe he needs a hug.

    Gringo Mafia: The Girl. Director of Musical Activities and Group Hugs. POTW May 3-9 & Nov. 22-28, 2010

    Kinsiah0220

  • This post is for members of BlueandGold only. Join now! 30-Day Free Trial
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    I may not be pretty, but I'm fast..... POTW 1/31/11 - 2/6/11

    HamOnWry22

  • Kinsiah0220 said...

    Of course, it's also hard to argue with Hodges. Maybe he needs a hug.

    Kinsiah, when ND loses to USC, there is no bear hug in the world big enough to console Hodges.

    As for the rest of your commentary, I thought it was spot on.

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    I may not be pretty, but I'm fast..... POTW 1/31/11 - 2/6/11

    HamOnWry22

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