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Probability that Bama Scores a Lot

  • I was aware that Bama is a 9.5 point favorite. I am not much of a bettor, so I was not aware of the over/under until a client asked me what it is. According to Vegas Insider, which is a site that a guy in the office told me is a good aggregator, the over/under is about 41.5 points. Assuming the line holds, Bama would need to beat ND by a score of 25 or 26 to 15 for the projection to be correct for the under. Obviously, if the game goes over, even more would be scored.

    Given ND's defense, how likely do you folks think it is that Bama will score 25 or more points? I think it is unlikely. By the way, no one will ever convince me to bet on a ND game. I tried it once and won the bet, but the Irish lost.

    “Notre Dame? Relevant? Of course. Call me in 90 years, and I’ll give you the same answer.” Neal Pilson, former president of CBS Sports

    NDDillon

  • Low scoring game .

    ndguy7

  • It's a 17-14 type game

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    WE ARE ND76

  • Oklahoma scored 13 on the Irish. Why would one expect Alabama to score twice that much? It only seems likely if ND commits costly turnovers, or can't move the ball at all and consistently loses the field position battle.

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    I may not be pretty, but I'm fast..... POTW 1/31/11 - 2/6/11

    HamOnWry22

  • ndguy7 said...

    Low scoring game .

    ^^^^ this. We will control the clock.

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    2-time winner of the prestigious POTW award

    DMo

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    65too

  • NDDillon said...

    I am not much of a bettor

    I am not much of a smart bettor, but here's one thing I have learned: my enjoyment of a big Notre Dame victory is barely enhanced at all by making money on it. People much wiser than I have cautioned anyone who listens to never bet games in which they have a strong, personal rooting interest, because objectivity will be hard to come by.

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    I may not be pretty, but I'm fast..... POTW 1/31/11 - 2/6/11

    HamOnWry22

  • HamOnWry22 said...

    I am not much of a smart bettor, but here's one thing I have learned: my enjoyment of a big Notre Dame victory is barely enhanced at all by making money on it. People much wiser than I have cautioned anyone who listens to never bet games in which they have a strong, personal rooting interest, because objectivity will be hard to come by.

    I was objective once. I found it boring.

    Mr Rice128364

  • D-Mo said...

    ^^^^ this. We will control the clock.

    D-Mo -- whoever the girl is in your profile pic --- ummm, yeah, AWESOME. But you knew that didn't you?

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    BGI 2008 Fantasy Football Champion / 2 Time POTW / I kicked everyone's butt in BGI game predictions 2010 / Mrs. LELLY's Hall of Fame

    JBP

  • If Bama scores more then ONE offensive touchdown I will be completely surprised. 13 points total at best for them. ND rolls the tide. Oklahoma type game.

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    2 time POTW winner on some dates I can't remember from 2yrs ago at BNG, POTW: 1/3/11- 1/9/11, 6/20/11-6/26/11

    IrishBob

  • I believe that Bama will have problems with ND's offense mainly with EG's mobility - Bama had problems with Manziel and as Coach Holtz said about EG "...he's not Manziel but he's pretty close...". Bama's Lacy is good but I don't see ND's dline allowing him the rushing #s he put on Georgia therefore this will put more pressure on McCarron who is more a pro style qb and ND will bring enough pressure to disrupt McCarron's timing(HELLO Nix, Tuitt, KLM, Manti & Co). Jones while good will not handle Nix w/o help again Bama isn't going to run at will thus mitigating the effectiveness of their pass play action. Bama's strong rushing game plays into ND's strength - dline defense. Overall I like the matchups for ND. To the point about points the final score if not close 17-10(ND) then more like the OU game 31-10(ND) which I believe more likely. BK isn't going to have to get this team UP and READY - THEY WANT this game - short of team suicide(tos and killer penalties) ND wins this game. Then everybody will know there's the SEC and THEN there's NOTRE DAME! GO IRISH!!

    This post was edited by irish13 on 12/11/2012 at 1:13 AM

    irish13

  • 21-20 Two amazing teams within the red zone will keep this relatively low scoring.

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    The hitman artist formerly known as Acemang

    aceinthehole

  • Crazy things happen in NC games with two great defensive teams. I see this game much like 1973. A three point game - one way or the other - with both teams in the 20's. These are two champions who will answer the bell. The game will hinge on a fumble, interception - run back. Final score is like 27-24. Of course, I am believing ND has the 27.

    Keeper of the Count to Resurrection II: the Kelly Era begins - - POTW: June 2010 & August 2011 - - member since 2004

    ashaia

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    Irish legend CMC Quote Master and Director of Football Related Discussions 5 Time POTW & 2 Time WPOTW Winner Joined 09/17/05

    Hodges

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    ndfaninmd

  • I always go to the national rankings.

    The best overall offense ND played was Oklahoma:
    Rush Offense #60
    Pass Offense #5
    Overall Offense #10

    ND 30
    OK 13

    Alabama:
    Rush Offense #20
    Pass Offense #84
    Overall Offense #40

    Interestly, Alabama's offense is very similar to ND's, and not as good as Oklahoma's.

    Notre Dame:
    Rush Offense #27
    Pass Offense #75
    Overall Offense #49

    So, How many points would our offense put up on our defense?

    Answer: Not too many.

    Low scoring game.

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    "No one is useless in this world who lightens the burdens of another" -- Charles Dickens

    dave83nd

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